COST DETECTIVE · Coffee

Bean prices have started falling — will coffee prices follow?

Following the money from raw material to shelf price over time, using published data.

Raw cost 2025→2026-17.2%
Retail 2025→2026—
WeightNo change recorded
vs global average+88%

HOGU INDEX

What does it cost abroad?

Hogu itemKoreaGlobal avgLowestvs avg
아메리카노
톨 사이즈 / 잔
₩4,500₩2,400
프랑스
₩1,300
터키
+88%

The Hogu Index item is a café Americano.

Taken as-is from the Hogu Index (its KRW conversion and reference products).

Open in Hogu Index

COMBINED INSIGHT

At a glance

Korea vs global average+88%
Cost increase pass-through (2024→2025)22%
Cost saving pass-throughNo such period
Weight change—

Each indicator stands alone; no combined score.

RAW VS RETAIL

Raw material vs retail price

Index with 2024 set to 100, comparing later changes.601001512023202420252026Arabica coffee, world price 2023: 80.8Arabica coffee, world price 2024: 100.0Arabica coffee, world price 2025: 150.7Arabica coffee, world price 2026: 124.7Robusta coffee, world price 2023: 59.6Robusta coffee, world price 2024: 100.0Robusta coffee, world price 2025: 110.2Robusta coffee, world price 2026: 83.4Coffee CPI (packaged) 2024: 100.0Coffee CPI (packaged) 2025: 111.4
Arabica coffee, world priceRobusta coffee, world priceCoffee CPI (packaged)
Index with 2024 = 100. It compares rates of change, not prices; gaps are periods without published data.
PeriodArabica coffee, world priceRobusta coffee, world priceCoffee CPI (packaged)
202380.859.6n/a
2024100.0100.0100.0
2025150.7110.2111.4
2026124.783.4n/a

Arabica coffee, world price · International benchmark (World Bank) · Annual average; 2026 = Q2 average

PeriodOriginal (USD/kg)In KRW
20234.54—
20245.62—
20258.47—
20267.01—

KRW uses today’s live rate (1 USD ≈ … won, at view time) for reference; it is not the historical import cost.

Source: World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026

Robusta coffee, world price · International benchmark (World Bank) · Annual average; 2026 = Q2 average

PeriodOriginal (USD/kg)In KRW
20232.63—
20244.41—
20254.86—
20263.68—

KRW uses today’s live rate (1 USD ≈ … won, at view time) for reference; it is not the historical import cost.

Source: World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026

Coffee CPI (packaged): Rebased to 2024=100 from the 2025 annual change (+11.4%); the 2024 change is not in the highlights and 2026 is not yet published — 통계청 「2025년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」(2025.12.31)

PASS-THROUGH

How much of the cost change reached the shelf

PeriodRawRetailSimple reference ratio
2023→2024+23.8%—Insufficient data
2024→2025+50.7%+11.4%Increase pass-through 22%
2025→2026-17.2%—Insufficient data

A simple ratio of retail change to raw change. Prices also carry labour, packaging, rent and logistics, so this is not a margin change.

Asymmetric price adjustment

Cost increase lagNot computed
Cost decrease lagNot computed

Only annual data is available, so day-level lags cannot be computed yet; they will be once monthly series are added.

PRICE WATERFALL

How the price stacks up

Green beansUnknown
Roasting and processingUnknown
PackagingUnknown
Distribution and retailUnknown
Consumer priceUnknown

Only confirmed amounts are shown; undisclosed steps stay “Unknown” and are not estimated.

BENEFICIARY MAP

Who absorbed the difference?

Manufacturer / integrator
Import purchase prices and inventory timing not public
Unclear
Consumer
No annual data yet on whether 2026 bean declines reach shelves
Unclear

Unless directly confirmed, parties stay “Unclear”. A gap between cost and retail moves does not establish who kept the difference.

CONSUMER EFFECT

What consumers gained and lost

Gained

  • None confirmed

Lost

  • Coffee CPI +11.4% in 2025

TIMELINE

Cost and price timeline

  1. 2025Arabica annual +50.7% (5.62 → 8.47 USD/kg) ↗
  2. 2025Coffee CPI (packaged) +11.4% ↗
  3. 2026-Q2Arabica 7.01 USD/kg — −17.2% vs 2025 average ↗

Read with care

  • World bean prices (USD) reach Korean shelves through FX, freight, tariffs and inventory, so lags are long.
  • Hogu Index coffee is a café Americano (dining out); the CPI here is packaged coffee. They share the raw bean but are different products.

Reports and corrections

Tell us about price, weight or ingredient changes. Companies can request corrections with supporting evidence.

Sources

  1. World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026 · checked 2026-10-02
  2. 통계청 「2023년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」(2023.12.29) · checked 2026-10-02
  3. 통계청 「2025년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」(2025.12.31) · checked 2026-10-02

Last checked 2026-10-02. Raw series: Arabica coffee, world price.

DETECTIVE RADAR

Coffee from other angles

  • Origin DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Cost DetectiveThis page
  • Distribution DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Inflation DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Discount DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Value DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Hype DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Hogu IndexApplies · not analysed yet
  • Tax DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Wage DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Ingredient Detective (food & drinks)Applies · not analysed yet
  • Regulation DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet

✓ analysed · △ applies, not analysed yet · not applicable: Privacy Detective · All axes on one page · Who made this price?