Coffee

PRICE CONTROLLER MAP

Bean prices pushed coffee up — will coffee come down when beans fall?

Traced price → cost → margin → control → bottleneck; who moved the price comes last, only as far as the evidence goes. No scores.

1. 01 · Price

   What moved, and by how much?

   Observation VERIFIED

   Arabica 4.54 (2023) → 5.62 (2024) → 8.47 USD/kg (2025); Q2 2026 7.01 (−17.2% vs 2025). Packaged-coffee CPI +11.4% in 2025.

   World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026 · 통계청 「2025년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」

2. 02 · Cost

   Which costs rose?

   Raw-material supplier · Cost contribution UNKNOWN

   World bean prices are public; Korean firms’ purchase prices, inventory timing and the bean share of a product price are not.

   World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026

   No evidence (unknown): Manufacturer, Distributor / retailer, The industry as a whole

3. 03 · Margin

   Who keeps how much?

   No evidence (unknown): Raw-material supplier, Manufacturer, Distributor / retailer, The industry as a whole

4. 04 · Control

   Who sets, passes on and holds the price?

   The industry as a whole · Downward resistance UNKNOWN

   No annual statistics yet on whether the 2026 bean fall reaches shoppers; the 2026 annual CPI will fill this cell.

   No evidence (unknown): Raw-material supplier, Manufacturer, Distributor / retailer

5. 05 · Bottleneck

   Who holds the chokepoint?

   No evidence (unknown): Raw-material supplier, Manufacturer, Distributor / retailer, The industry as a whole

06 · Who benefits

So who is moving this price most?

Primary price driver ESTIMATED

Raw-material supplier

World bean prices are a likely driver (low-confidence estimate).

Basis: Only that world bean prices (+50.7%) and coffee CPI (+11.4%) moved the same way in 2025. Without the bean share, how much of the rise it explains is unknown. · confidence Low

World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026 · 통계청 「2025년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」

Margin capturer UNKNOWN

No one can be named on the evidence

No margin data.

Bottleneck holder UNKNOWN

No one can be named on the evidence

No structural data.

Price leader UNKNOWN

No one can be named on the evidence

Dated order of rises not compiled.

Confirmed collusion UNKNOWN

No one can be named on the evidence

No FTC decision or court ruling linked to this case.

• World bean prices reach Korean shelves through FX, freight, tariffs and inventory, with long lags.

Checked 2026-10-08 · Why a price is high and who keeps the money can differ, so roles are listed separately.

✓ ANALYSED

Analyses you can open

• Cost DetectiveCoffee

△ NOT ANALYSED YET

Angles that apply but are still empty

Not applicable: Privacy Detective