COST DETECTIVE · Milk

Raw milk prices have been frozen for three years — what did milk prices do?

Following the money from raw material to shelf price over time, using published data.

Raw cost 2024→20250.0%
Retail 2024→2025—
WeightNo change recorded
vs global average+142%

HOGU INDEX

What does it cost abroad?

Hogu itemKoreaGlobal avgLowestvs avg
우유
서울우유 1L / L
₩2,900₩1,200
미국
₩800
폴란드
+142%

Taken as-is from the Hogu Index (its KRW conversion and reference products).

Open in Hogu Index

COMBINED INSIGHT

At a glance

Korea vs global average+142%
Cost increase pass-through (2022→2023)112%
Cost saving pass-throughNo such period
Weight change—

Each indicator stands alone; no combined score.

RAW VS RETAIL

Raw material vs retail price

Index with 2022 set to 100, comparing later changes.8010012020222023202420252026Raw milk base price (drinking milk) 2022: 100.0Raw milk base price (drinking milk) 2023: 108.8Raw milk base price (drinking milk) 2024: 108.8Raw milk base price (drinking milk) 2025: 108.8Raw milk base price (drinking milk) 2026: 108.8Milk CPI 2022: 100.0Milk CPI 2023: 109.9Milk CPI 2024: 115.1
Raw milk base price (drinking milk)Milk CPI
Index with 2022 = 100. It compares rates of change, not prices; gaps are periods without published data.
PeriodRaw milk base price (drinking milk)Milk CPI
2022100.0100.0
2023108.8109.9
2024108.8115.1
2025108.8n/a
2026108.8n/a

Raw milk base price (drinking milk) · Korea Dairy Committee decision · Price set for the year; the 2023 increase applied from 1 October

PeriodOriginal (원/L)
2022996
20231,084
20241,084
20251,084
20261,084

Source: 식품음료신문 — 용도별 원유 기본가격 결정, 음용유 리터당 1,084원(2023.7.27)

Milk CPI: Rebased to 2022=100 from KOSTAT annual changes (2023 +9.9%, 2024 +4.7%); 2025 onward not in the release highlights — 통계청 「2024년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」(2024.12.31)

PASS-THROUGH

How much of the cost change reached the shelf

PeriodRawRetailSimple reference ratio
2022→2023+8.8%+9.9%Increase pass-through 112%
2023→20240.0%+4.7%Raw cost barely moved — ratio undefined
2024→20250.0%—Insufficient data

A simple ratio of retail change to raw change. Prices also carry labour, packaging, rent and logistics, so this is not a margin change.

Asymmetric price adjustment

Cost increase lagNot computed
Cost decrease lagNot computed

Only annual data is available, so day-level lags cannot be computed yet; they will be once monthly series are added.

INGREDIENT CHANGE

Ingredient substitution

Seoul Milk chocolate and other flavoured milks · 2025-06

Before76.8% raw milk (chocolate milk)
AfterPart of the raw milk replaced with water and domestic skim powder
Company explanationSays it uses domestic skim powder made in-house, nutrition and cost are unchanged, and the change improves preservation and distribution efficiency

See the taste and nutrition trade-off in Food Cost Detective

뉴스웨이 — 서울우유 가공유, 원유 줄이고 탈지분유 넣었다(2025.6.4)

PRICE WATERFALL

How the price stacks up

Raw milk
Drinking-milk base price per litre; actual raw-milk cost per carton depends on yield and recipe
₩1,084
ProcessingUnknown
PackagingUnknown
Cold chainUnknown
Distribution and retailUnknown
Consumer priceUnknown

Only confirmed amounts are shown; undisclosed steps stay “Unknown” and are not estimated.

BENEFICIARY MAP

Who absorbed the difference?

Manufacturer / integrator
Product-level cost structure not public
Unclear
Store / retailer
No retail margin data
Unclear
Consumer
2024 CPI rise may partly reflect the October 2023 increase spilling into the yearly average
Unclear

Unless directly confirmed, parties stay “Unclear”. A gap between cost and retail moves does not establish who kept the difference.

CONSUMER EFFECT

What consumers gained and lost

Gained

  • Raw milk price frozen (2024–2026)

Lost

  • Lower raw-milk share in some flavoured milks

TIMELINE

Cost and price timeline

  1. 2023Milk CPI +9.9% ↗
  2. 2023-10-01Raw milk base price 996 → 1,084 won/L (+8.8%) applied ↗
  3. 2024Raw milk price frozen (1,084 won/L) ↗
  4. 2024Milk CPI +4.7% ↗
  5. 2025-06Seoul Milk flavoured milks: part raw milk → skim powder and water ↗
  6. 2026Raw milk price frozen for a third year ↗

Read with care

  • The 2023 raw increase applied from October, so annual averages mix in a lag.
  • In years with no raw price change, pass-through is undefined and not computed.

Reports and corrections

Tell us about price, weight or ingredient changes. Companies can request corrections with supporting evidence.

Sources

  1. 식품음료신문 — 용도별 원유 기본가격 결정, 음용유 리터당 1,084원(2023.7.27) · checked 2026-10-02
  2. 서울신문 — 낙농회, 4년 만에 원윳값 동결(2024.7.30) · checked 2026-10-02
  3. 이투데이 — 올해 원유 가격 3년째 동결(2026.5.15) · checked 2026-10-02
  4. 통계청 「2023년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」(2023.12.29) · checked 2026-10-02
  5. 통계청 「2024년 12월 및 연간 소비자물가동향」(2024.12.31) · checked 2026-10-02
  6. 뉴스웨이 — 서울우유 가공유, 원유 줄이고 탈지분유 넣었다(2025.6.4) · checked 2026-10-02

Last checked 2026-10-02. Raw series: Raw milk base price (drinking milk).

DETECTIVE RADAR

Milk from other angles

  • Origin DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Cost DetectiveThis page
  • Distribution DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Inflation DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Discount DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Value DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Hype DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Hogu IndexApplies · not analysed yet
  • Tax DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Wage DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet
  • Ingredient Detective (food & drinks)Applies · not analysed yet
  • Regulation DetectiveApplies · not analysed yet

✓ analysed · △ applies, not analysed yet · not applicable: Privacy Detective · All axes on one page · Who made this price?